Updated demand-supply forecast: Tighter allocation for power sector by 2030

The Chinese government provided several batches of new information regarding the country’s national emission trading system (ETS) since the release of Veyt’s demand-supply forecast in June 2024. Coinciding with the three-year “anniversary” of the Chinese national carbon market (first transactions of China Emission Allowances – CEAs – occurred in mid-July 2021), these policy updates and clarifications affect some of the demand-supply model’s assumptions and therefore its forecast. This analysis details the new information, explains how that new information relates to model assumptions, and illustrates how it affects the resulting demand-supply forecast accordingly.