Time for TNAC: Entering the buffer zone

The annual market surplus indicator that will be published by the European Commission on 29 May is based on 2025 emissions reported by the reporting deadline.The operation of the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is a direct function of the size of the market surplus. We estimate this year’s surplus to enter the buffer zone with the consequence that the MSR intake rate effectively slows down from 24% to 19%.