The European Commission does not plan changes to the regulatory framework related to the Guarantees of Origin (GO), following the initial findings of a study aimed at discovering a potential need for system improvements.
The European Commission appointed LBST, Oko Institut, and Trinomics – consortium to perform an evaluation of the GO system following a related provision in Article 19 of the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Specifically, it tasked the group to provide “technical assistance to monitor functioning of the guarantees of origin system and develop options for labelling to promote new RES production”.
Veyt attended the workshop on 28 April 2025, where the preliminary results of part one of the study were unveiled and summarised key findings below.
The functioning of the GO market was checked via six dimensions:
- liquidity,
- stability,
- efficiency,
- transparency,
- harmonisation,
- and responsiveness.
A separate workshop on the Union Green label study findings will follow in May 2025.
Liquidity
The study’s market balance assessment found the GO market to be structurally oversupplied by about 100 TWh. This is significantly lower than Veyt’s cumulative market balance assessment of 184 TWh in 2024, likely because our team took into consideration preliminary cancellation data from local registries. Furthermore, our methodology reflects country-specific disclosure periods and considers AIB reporting errors.
Efficiency
The GO system was found to be effective in tracking renewable energy, but further harmonisation is required to reduce the risks of misconduct. Disproportionally high reliance on location-based reporting in Norway and limited options to act upon misconduct are cited as major risks.
Outlook
Looking at the supply and demand balance towards 2030, the study made the following supply assumptions:
1. If all EU RES targets are met and applying today’s issuing rates, then the GO technology mix would be: 90 % for hydro, 50 % for wind and 30 % for solar;
2. Considering a reserve of 200 TWh, 1,350 TWh of GOs may be issued in 2030 (it is unclear what countries were included (EU/AIB members?) in the modelling).
For comparison, Veyt’s base-case has a similar GO supply forecast of 1,349 TWh by 2030, reflecting our assumption that the EU will not fully achieve its renewable goals. Our GO technology mix by 2030 is as follows: 21 % solar, 29 % hydro and 45 % wind. Veyt’s latest forecast update will be released on 2 May 2025 to all clients.
The study’s GO supply modelling did not explicitly include Norway but implicitly concluded that there would be very little build-out of hydro generation, thereby insignificantly altering the supply fundamentals.
On the demand side, the main drivers with their largest quantified impact are presented in the table below.
