We have made several enhancements to our ETS2 platform, most notably the integration of vehicle registration data, giving clients granular insights into the pace of low-carbon vehicle adoption that will shape allowance demand and ETS2 price dynamics. Although ETS2 implementation has been delayed to 2028, early adoption trends will shape expectations and influence forward pricing well before the system starts.
Recent weeks have been eventful for the ETS2, with significant changes to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) and the delay of ETS2 implementation to 2028. On November 11th, we updated our base case on our platform to reflect this proposed policy framework. As a result, all charts and tables now start in 2028, rather than 2027 as before.
While this delay shifts the timeline, the ETS2 remains a cornerstone of EU climate policy and a critical driver of long-term decarbonisation in the EU. At Veyt, we continue to invest in our ETS2 product to help clients anticipate market impacts and make informed decisions.
Specifically, we made the following enhancements to our ETS2 platform:
Updated landing page: We have updated our EU ETS2 landing page to further improve usability by summarising key information on this page and to increase consistency across all Veyt solutions. Specifically, the landing page now includes three key charts: (i) the price and volume for the ICE DEC-28 EUA2 future contract, (ii) our EUA2 price forecast, and (iii) our emissions forecast for the sectors covered by the ETS2. The ETS2 landing page now also includes a “Data ticker” that allows to quickly identify updated data or other material across the platform.
Monthly reports page: We introduced a separate page for regular updates to facilitate differentiating between ad-hoc analyst updates and regular updates.
Vehicle registration data: To allow clients to assess the magnitude and pace of low-carbon vehicle adoption we incorporated new vehicle registration data, sourced from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), into our platform.
Among these enhancements, the integration of vehicle registration data stands out as particularly important for understanding ETS2 price dynamics. Road transport is one of the key sectors covered by the ETS2, accounting for roughly 60% of total emissions covered by the system. This makes the pace of low-carbon vehicle adoption one of the most influential factors for allowance demand and price formation.
Passenger cars represent about 60% of road transport emissions, with trucks and buses accounting for another 28% and vans for 12%. Understanding how quickly, these sub-sectors transition to cleaner technologies is essential for forecasting emissions and the ETS2 price. If the share of low-carbon vehicles increases faster than anticipated, emissions reductions in road transport will outpace what the market has assumed, leading to less allowance demand relative to expectations and downward pressure on the ETS2 price. Conversely, if adoption lags what is priced in, the ETS2 price could rise.
Although ETS2 implementation has been delayed to 2028, these early adoption trends will shape expectations and influence forward pricing well before the system starts.
To help strengthen client’s analysis, we have integrated vehicle registration data from the EAFO into our platform. Users can now analyse vehicle registrations by vehicle type, technology and country. Depending on vehicle type the data frequency is either monthly or annual (but updated quarterly).
Vehicle registration data show the progress in the adoption of low-carbon vehicles across Europe, though the pace varies by vehicle type and country. In September, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for approximately 20% of all passenger car registrations in the EU, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) represented around 11%. The transition for vans has been slower, with alternative-fuel vehicles making up about 10% of registrations year-to-date in 2025. Buses show the most advanced shift towards electrification, with nearly 29% of registrations being alternative-fuel vehicles, of which BEVs represent 22%. Trucks remain at an early stage of transition, with only 6% of registrations classified as alternative-fuel vehicles.
Country-level differences are striking. For example, in Germany, BEVs and PHEVs accounted combined for 28% of passenger car and vans registrations in 2025 so far. In contrast, Poland – one of the countries that influenced the delay of the ETS2 to 2028 – recorded only 13% alternative-fuel registrations. Poland ranks among the five EU countries with the lowest share of newly registered alternative-fuel vehicles, alongside Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Slower adoption in these markets means emissions will remain higher for longer, sustaining allowance demand relative to faster-transitioning countries. These disparities underscore the uneven pace of transition across Member States, which will shape both compliance costs and the overall ETS2 price trajectory. Slower adoption, relative to what is priced in, in key markets like Poland could sustain emissions longer, creating upward price pressure, and vice versa for faster adoption. These dynamics will influence forward pricing well before ETS2 starts in 2028. Clients can now explore the EAFO vehicle registration data directly on our ETS2 platform here.
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