While waiting for the 2040 target
It has been over a year since the European Commission presented its proposal and impact assessment for a 2040 climate target in February 2024. Assessing three main options, the Commission recommended reducing the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% relative to 1990 by 2040, in line with recommendations from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. Achieving this 2040 ambition would likely entail a significant acceleration in carbon removal deployment to balance emissions. The Commission estimates that achieving a 90% emission reduction will require 319 Mt of carbon removals, of which 75 Mt of industrial removals, see Textbox 1.
Meanwhile, other policy developments are preparing the ground for the scale-up of removals in Europe:
On 20 November 2024, the EU Council adopted the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), the EU’s first standardised system for certifying carbon removal, carbon farming, and carbon storage. The CRCF establishes a regulatory baseline intended to support the integration of removals alongside emission reductions across sectors. The European Commission plans to publish certification methodologies in the first half of 2025, followed by delegated acts in the second half of the year. The first issuance of CRCF-certified credits is anticipated in 2026.
The Scientific Advisory Board released a report on 21 February on scaling CDR in Europe, emphasising the need for distinct, legally binding targets for gross emissions reductions, permanent removals, and temporary removals. Its recommendations will play into the considerations around the upcoming revision of the European Climate Law to ink a climate target for 2040, and in shaping the thinking around the interaction between the EU ETS and carbon removals.
The Clean Industrial Deal, presented on 26 February, is the new Commission’s flagship roadmap spelling out measures to give urgent support to Europe’s ailing heavy industries, while also setting the course for a continued green transition to develop European clean tech and ensure the 2050 decarbonisation target. The Deal reiterates the aim to “build the business case for permanent carbon removals to compensate for residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, including in the context of the review of the ETS Directive in 2026”.
On 14 April, the Commission released a public consultation on the review of the EU ETS and its Market Stability Reserve to inform the proposal and impact assessment due in 2026. This includes inputs on the possible inclusion of domestic permanent carbon removals in the EU ETS. This will provide input to the Commission assessment and possible legal proposal due by the end of July 2026, on how negative emissions could be accounted for and covered by emissions trading, if appropriate (EU ETS directive Article 30.5a).
Both the Clean Industrial Deal and the Competitiveness Compass, released in January, reiterate the Commission’s commitment to a 90% reduction target for 2040. The formal legislative proposal to ink a 2040 target in the European Climate Law has been repeatedly postponed and is now expected towards summer. However, discussions on the 2040 climate target are intensifying, including on the role of negative emissions to reach it. The CDU-SPD
