Polish Wind and Solar Guarantees of Origin (GOs) extended their downward trend across all vintages, with monthly price declines ranging from 4 % to 33 %. Near-term vintages led the drop, and all vintages are now trading at a widening discount to AIB EU GOs – continuing a divergence observed since January 2025.
2024 vintage plunged 33 % to EUR 0.06/MWh.
2025 and 2026 vintages each fell by around 13 %, settling at EUR 0.33/MWh and EUR 0.68/MWh, respectively.
Forward-dated vintages saw milder losses, with the 2027 contract down 6 % to EUR 0.80/MWh and the 2028 vintage down 4 % at EUR 0.96/MWh.
This month’s declines-ranging from 4 % to 33 %-were slightly softer than May’s 12 % to 36 % drop, underscoring a persisting bearish sentiment.
On the supply side, the possibility to roll over older vintages (i.e., the use of older vintages for current consumption) is likely adding downward pressure. This mechanism is not universally allowed across AIB member states.
On the demand side, market sources indicate some non-RE100 Polish consumers reverting to the cheapest available electricity, further weighing on GO prices.
While Polish GO prices declined, AIB GO prices-excluding the 2024 vintage-have increased, driven by strong demand for the 2024 disclosure period and persistently low renewable generation across AIB member countries in recent months.
As a result, all Polish GO vintages are trading at a widening discount to their AIB counterparts, a trend that has continued since January 2025.
The price spread between Polish and AIB GOs, once in the EUR 0.05–0.10/MWh range, has now expanded to as much as EUR 0.20 -0.30/MWh.
In May 2025, TGE memberships increased modestly to 3,297 members from 3,271 in March 2025, reflecting continued interested by market players in Polish GO market.
In May, trading volumes fell from 4.41 TWh to 2.43 TWh, while the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) declined from PLN 6.39/MWh to PLN 3.78/MWh. At the same time, cancelled volumes rose from 2.33 TWh to 3.33 TWh, according to TGE.
The accompanying graph illustrates the evolution of monthly market activity and VWAP of Polish GOs over the past three years.
The recent presidential election on 1 June 2025 and confidence vote in the Sejm (Polish Parliament) on 11 June 2025 have created a politically divided environment in Poland. This division is likely to delay green energy reforms, as the conservative coal-supporting president holds veto power and the government’s narrow majority in parliament is insufficient to override it.
For the Polish GO market, this could translate into slower growth in GO issuance, as uncertainty and policy gridlock hinder investment in new renewable projects.
At the same time, demand for GOs may weaken, as mixed signals from the government dilute momentum around corporate sustainability and green electricity sourcing.
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