As of 27 August 2025, indicative bid-ask prices for Polish Wind and Solar Guarantees of Origin (GOs) halted the previous month’s decline, showing signs of stabilization and modest strengthening.
Across all vintages, Polish GOs are now trading at a reduced discount to AIB-issued EU GOs, which declined over the same period, marking a reversal of the trend observed since the start of the year.
The 2024, 2025, and 2028 vintages remained relatively stable at EUR 0.07/MWh, EUR 0.35/MWh, and EUR 0.94/MWh respectively, each edging up by EUR 0.01/MWh.
In contrast, near-future vintages for 2026 and 2027 posted stronger gains of around 12 % and 11 % month-on-month, rising by EUR 0.08/MWh to reach EUR 0.73/MWh and EUR 0.83/MWh respectively.
This marks a reversal from the month-on-month declines over the past two months, which ranged between 3 % and 33 %
While Polish GO prices inched higher, AIB GO prices declined, reflecting continued pressure from the 2024 surplus on the AIB market. This weakness has been compounded by expected stagnant German GO demand in 2024, resulting in a record AIB market balance and higher rollover into 2025.
As a result, all Polish GO vintages are now trading at a reduced discount to their AIB counterparts – a trend that has persisted since January 2025.
Put differently, Polish GO prices have remained relatively stable throughout the summer, while the AIB GO market has been more volatile, leading to spreads that at times have moved out of sync.
Stronger renewable generation in Poland, the absence of rollover restrictions (unlike in some AIB countries), and a shift by certain non-RE100 buyers toward cheaper power have helped keep Polish GO prices low. This dynamic has contributed to the observed disconnect of spreads with the AIB.
The price gap, which earlier expanded to as much as EUR 0.15–0.80/MWh, has now narrowed to between EUR 0.055 and EUR 0.535/MWh.
Membership: TGE membership rose modestly to 3,373 in August 2025, up from 3,356 in July, signaling steady market interest.
Market activity: In July, trading volumes increased from 2.98 TWh to 4.59 TWh, while the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) strengthened from PLN 4.89/MWh to PLN 6.78/MWh. Cancelled volumes, however, fell from 2.37 TWh to 1.32 TWh.
The accompanying graph illustrates how monthly trading activity and VWAP of Polish GOs have evolved over the past three years.
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