Indicative bid–ask prices for Polish Wind and Solar Guarantees of Origin (GOs) softened again in October, with forward vintages recording modest weakness and near-term maturities continuing to ease. The retreat reflects a gradual cooling in market sentiment following August’s brief rebound.
Across all maturities, Polish GOs are now priced at a narrower discount to AIB-issued EU GOs, as both markets weakened through October. The trend of spread contraction — observed over the past few months — continued, though at a slower pace.
The 2024 vintage remained steady at an assessed price of EUR 0.06/MWh, suggesting that a price floor has been established around this level.
For 2025 production, the assessed price fell sharply to EUR 0.20/MWh from EUR 0.28/MWh in September — a decline of around 29 %, reversing most of the gains seen earlier in the year.
Near-term vintages weakened by approximately 30% A 20 % compared with August, with the 2025 vintage declining by EUR 0.07/MWh to EUR 0.28/MWh and the 2026 vintage falling by EUR 0.13/MWh to EUR 0.47/MWh.
The 2026 vintage dropped by EUR 0.13/MWh to EUR 0.47/MWh, while 2027 and 2028 prices fell by EUR 0.13/MWh and EUR 0.09/MWh, respectively, closing at EUR 0.60/MWh and EUR 0.75/MWh.
This broad decline marks the second consecutive monthly downturn and contrasts with the breif upward trend observed during late summer.
Polish GO prices eased modestly in October, while AIB-issued GOs experienced steeper declines. The AIB market remained under sustained pressure from the large rollover of 2024 volumes, although longer-dated maturities may find selective support from early utility hedging and rollover activity into 2026.
As a result, Polish GOs are now trading at a reduced discount to AIB equivalents, extending the narrowing trend observed since July. Polish prices have remained comparatively stable throughout 2025, while the AIB market has been notably more volatile, at times pushing spreads beyond historical ranges.
Key structural factors continue to anchor Polish GO prices at relatively low levels. Combined wind, solar, and hydro generation in Poland increased by around 2 % year-to-date, rising from 38.56 TWh to 39.23 TWh by the end of October 2025. In contrast, renewable output across the AIB area declined by approximately 2.2 % over the same period. The absence of rollover restrictions in Poland (unlike in several AIB countries) further supports liquidity and certificate supply, helping to sustain lower domestic price levels. These dynamics have contributed to the persistent, though gradually narrowing, disconnect between Polish and AIB benchmark prices.
The discount between Polish and AIB-issued GOs narrowed further in October, continuing the contraction trend observed throughout 2025. The latest data show spreads ranging from EUR 0.06/MWh for 2024 to EUR 0.21/MWh for 2028, markedly tighter than the EUR 0.15–0.80/MWh range recorded earlier in the year.
Membership: TGE membership continued to grow steadily, reaching 3,414 members as of 24 October 2025, up from 3,401 in September.
Market activity: Trading activity in October 2025 rose notably, with the total traded volume increasing to 6.43 TWh from 5.39 TWh in September — the highest monthly level since March. The volume of cancelled GOs eased slightly to 1.79 TWh from 2.65 TWh, while the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) inched up to PLN 4.44/MWh from PLN 4.27/MWh in September. This rebound in traded volume follows two months of muted activity and indicates renewed market participation despite relatively subdued price levels.
The accompanying graph illustrates how monthly trading activity and VWAP of Polish GOs have evolved over the past three years.
Given the combination of higher renewable generation and still-elevated discounts, Polish GOs are expected to remain relatively stable against AIB-issued certificates in the near term. In the longer term, further spread tightening, particularly in forward vintages, appears likely should there be concrete progress on Poland’s AIB membership pathway.
Meanwhile, the AIB market has been on a steady downward trend since mid-July, pressured by the sizeable 2024 surplus. However, the recent rebound in early November may indicate that a price floor is beginning to form after more than three months of sustained weakness, suggesting that the market could be approaching a period of stabilisation.
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