New statistics format

The AIB released a reformed statistics dataset earlier this week. A key change is the removal of technology information from all data iterations (cancellation, issuance, expiries, exports, imports). Veyt has contacted the AIB to clarify whether this is a permanent change or if technology breakdowns will return in future monthly updates.

While the new format offers more frequent reporting, it reduces transparency in the GO market, particularly in countries like Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands, where nuclear GOs are eligible for cancellation and are growing in significance. Since the project is still new, technology details may yet be reintroduced in future updates.

Demand trends deciphered in the AIB data

Despite the shortcomings of the new AIB data, the restriction of non-RES GOs in Germany makes it possible to read that German RES-E GO cancellations for 2024 landed at 207.2 TWh, which is close to Veyt’s earlier medium-term forecast of 208.7 TWh.

This is a slight increase of 3.5 TWh or 1.7 % compared to 2023, but it falls short of the 25 TWh or 14 % increase seen between 2022 and 2023. The overall cancellation of renewable, nuclear and fossil EECS GOs in the AIB for the 2024 disclosure period landed at 933.5 TWh (excluding Spanish and Swedish domestic GOs), 7.6 % higher than in 2023, confirming the strong trend for certified consumption of electricity.

The cancellations between April-June 2025 for all countries except Germany and April-May in Switzerland (due to their deviating disclosure deadlines) landed at 128.6 TWh, 16 % higher than the same period in 2024.

The most notable country-specific increases can be seen in France, Finland, Sweden, Ireland and Norway where the total cancellation has increased year-on-year by a volume-weighted average of 35 %, with Ireland seeing an increase of 126 % and Finland 59 %.

It is uncertain if this increase is lasting or the result of a higher need to cancel GOs before they expire due to the record high oversupply in 2024. Notably, most cancellations in this period were observed in June 2025, when the GO market saw intense trading activity and escalating prices.

Considering that the price rally continued over July, it is possible that these heightened cancellations numbers may be reflected in July’s statistics as well.