Guarantees of Origin (GO) prices jumped on Tuesday, 17 June with benchmark Nordic Hydro gaining around 10 % across all production years. The most pronounced increase was seen on the 2026-2028 vintages. The move follows a moderate upward price trend observed during week 24 as buyers demand intensified.

The 2024 vintage also attracted some buying interest, most likely driven by last minute position closing in Germany where the 2024 disclosure period will end on 1 July.

Market sources reported strong demand coming from utilities and other big buyers that are hedging their future positions. The increased buying interest was met by thin offers as sellers are gradually shutting down operations ahead of the summer break with many already having hedged their positions.

One market participant reported that the outbreak of the war in the Middle East and the potential of high oil and gas prices if the conflict protracts, triggered some of the hedging on future vintages. This was justified by some industrial consumers’ expectations for policy changes in favour of accelerated industrial electrification in Europe.

Also on Tuesday, the French auction for 4 TWh worth of 2025 GOs organised by EEX concluded at EUR 0.60/MWh, about 5 % higher than the closing price that Veyt observed in the over-the-counter (OTC) market the day before the auction. The French auction traditionally acts as a price signal on the OTC market and tends to trigger trading activity.

The auction’s price increase could be related to the GO market’s shifting fundamentals. As previously reported by Veyt, after a persistent oversupply since 2023, the market balance is forecasted to tighten in 2025. The 2024 disclosure period saw a strong increase in cancellations compared to 2023. If this growth trend is confirmed also by the cancellations in Germany, then the market length could decrease significantly in 2025, thus lending further support to prices.