The 30 September deadline is approaching fast and for the first time shipping companies must surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) for compliance under the EU ETS. The question is: are they ready?
By 30 September, shipping companies must surrender EUAs covering 40% of their 2024 emissions that fall within the EU ETS scope.
Veyt estimates that 2024 shipping emissions within scope will reach 90 million tons of CO₂. Forty percent equals 36 million tons CO₂. At today’s EUA price of €76, this corresponds to €2.7 billion in compliance costs. If companies bought gradually throughout 2024 at the average price of €67, the cost would be closer to €2.4 billion.
And this is just the beginning. EU ETS costs for shipping are expected to rise sharply. Based on Veyt’s forecast, the sector will face costs of €4.9 billion in 2025 and €10.2 billion in 2026, driven by both broader scope and higher carbon prices (see figure).
It has been a while since a new sector was introduced to the EU ETS. The maritime sector naturally brings some additional challenges since it is a global sector with “installations” that could move in and out of the EU ETS scope from one year to another. They also vary significantly in size. Hence, shipping companies have taken different approaches to the compliance work.
The prepared group: Companies that acted early began purchasing allowances from the start of 2024. They also priced carbon into charter agreements, with costs passed on to customers – whether per container, cargo, or passenger. Large shipowners with direct control of their fleets are generally assumed to be in this camp.
The less prepared group – Other companies appear to have been slower to respond. At the 30 March deadline for submitting verified reports, the data was not complete—this could be due to bottlenecks among accredited verifiers but also reflecting uneven readiness across the sector.
As of 26 September, the Union Registry shows verified maritime emissions of 89 million tons of CO₂, with 31 million EUAs surrendered. This leaves around 5 million EUAs still outstanding compared with our estimate.
With only days left, most shipping companies look set to comply before the 30 September deadline, but the first real test of the sector’s ability to adapt to the EU ETS has exposed differences in preparedness.
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