EUA price forecast: Aligning our base-case with contours of expected ETS reform
Short-term energy prices and long-term policy change moderate our long-term price outlook.
ENVI votes through fallback benchmark amendments
ENVI has backed 99 million EUAs of extra fallback free allocation for 2026-2030, and close alignment between the EU institutions points to a quick trilogue d…
France puts the squeeze on supported GOs, CPB obligation runs to 2044
Legacy French GOs face a 90% clawback, including transport, likely narrowing prices; the CPB obligation extends to 2044, bullish long term but lighter than d…
2027 GOs fall below EUR 1.90/MWh as trading rebounds
2027 GOs fell below EUR 1.90/MWh on Tuesday as trading volumes rebounded, reversing October’s breakout above EUR 2.00/MWh ahead of Wednesday’s French and Hun…
Update: MSR invalidation agreement in trilogue
Council and Parliamentary negotiators reach a provisional agreement on MSR invalidation.
Ten EPP delegations push to delay ETS2, but the numbers are against them
In our view, the EPP revolt over ETS2 is unlikely to succeed in plenary, but it is likely to push rapporteur Peter Liese towards a modest concession, such as…
European carbon market (EU ETS): What the market is talking about
A green light for Dutch green gas?
The Dutch lower house passed the green gas obligation with the Senate the next stop. The EUR 450/t penalty far exceeds biomethane costs; compliance will be p…
Council debate on ETS show positions are wide apart
Member states are far from aligned on ambition, free allocation and what to do about ETS2
The Industrial Decarbonisation Bank and the carbon price
In our modelling of the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank, the subsidy package lowers the EUA price by about 6 EUR per tonne over 2028 to 2040 and keeps open i…
