EUA price forecast: Aligning our base-case with contours of expected ETS reform

The updated Veyt EUA price forecast reflects changed assumptions to key parameters of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The new base case aligns closely with the Commission’s 17 July proposal, except where the legislative debate points to a different outcome, and replaces the expectations-based framework used in the July forecast.

It covers the proposed cap trajectory, removal inclusion, the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank, and the scope of the system. The forecast sets out how these changes affect free allocation, demand from power, industry, maritime, and aviation, and the EUA price path to 2040.