In previous analysis published by Veyt, the renewable GO cancellation data that was extracted from national registries had indicated demand growth for the period Q2-3 2025 that stood at 17.5 %. Although it is still early to assess whether this growth is a product of earlier-than-usual cancellations or structural demand change, in many key countries like France, the Netherlands and Portugal, where cancellations are more evenly distributed throughout the months of the year, there are indications of structural demand growth.

The new AIB dataset contains GO data until September, but there is no technology information in the numbers, therefore obscuring the supply and demand outlook for market participants. Nevertheless, the mixed-technology numbers suggest that, during the period April-September 2025, there has been strong year-on-year GO cancellation growth in Cyprus, Czechia and Slovenia, while cancellations in Greece more than quadrupled (336 %). GO cancellations in Belgium remained at the same level as in 2024.

On the contrary, Austrian cancellations decreased 11 % year-on-year, while the biggest decrease is seen Germany, where the 2025 disclosure period started in July 2025. During the period July-September 2025, German consumers cancelled 19 TWh less than they did in the same period in 2024, which likely reflect the shorter disclosure window in Germany for the 2024 disclosure period.

Gainers

Besides Cyprus, which is still a nascent GO market, Czechia and Slovenia have added 27 % and 51 % more GO cancellations than the corresponding period in 2024. However, it is not clear from the AIB data whether the volumes are renewable or nuclear GOs.

Greece’s strong growth in GO cancellations most probably pertains to rising demand for renewable GOs, despite that more than 2 TWh of fossil GOs were cancelled by Greek consumers in 2024. Market participants in the Greek market report increased appetite for renewable electricity coming from both industries and households. On the business side, there is a significantly growing marketing value in the sustainability element. On the households’ side, large utilities have mentioned that the supply of green electricity is the default option in their contracts, which makes the retail sector a significant GO consumer. In addition to these, an industrial electricity cost support scheme is bound to be announced by the government at the end of the year, possibly accompanied by green electricity consumption conditionality.

Negative contributors

Austria implements a full consumption disclosure scheme; therefore, it is not clear whether the decrease in GO cancellation pertains to a drop in renewable GOs or fossil GOs.

The first three months of the German 2025 disclosure period have shown a significant decrease in GO consumption. In Germany, only renewable GOs are accepted for disclosure, therefore, the decrease pertains solely to renewable GOs. However, it is not safe to compare Q3 2024 and Q3 2025 numbers in Germany because last year’s disclosure period was only 8 months long, therefore, more cancellation activity had to be squeezed into fewer months compared to this year.

Conclusions

The total increase in cancellations for technology-mixed data indicates a 16.5 % growth when excluding Germany and Switzerland, due to the disclosure period running in different months. National registry data indicates that these volumes are subject to a nuclear-to-renewable GO switch and a decrease in the cancellation of fossil GOs. This means that the growth in renewable GO cancellation during the Q2-Q3 period is likely larger than 16.5 %, possibly aligning with the 17,5 % growth seen in national GO registries.