Price trends

2024 and 2025 vintages remained stable at EUR 0.06/MWh and EUR 0.34/MWh, respectively.

2026, 2027, and 2028 vintages fell by 5 % on average, settling at EUR 0.65/MWh, EUR 0.75/MWh, and EUR 0.93/MWh.

June’s price declines, ranging from 3 % to 6 %, were milder than May’s sharper drop of 4 % to 33 %, but still reflect sustained bearish sentiment.

On the supply side, the possibility to roll over older vintages (i.e., the use of older vintages for current consumption) is likely adding downward pressure. This mechanism is not universally allowed across AIB member states.

Stronger Polish renewable production than the AIB so far in 2025 is also contributing to lower Polish prices and greater divergence.

On the demand side, market sources indicate some non-RE100 Polish consumers reverting to the cheapest available electricity, further weighing on Polish GO prices.

EU spreads

While Polish GO prices declined, AIB GO prices have increased, driven by strong demand for the 2024 disclosure period and persistently low renewable generation across AIB member countries in recent months.

As a result, all Polish GO vintages are trading at a widening discount to their AIB counterparts, a trend that has continued since January 2025.

The price spread between Polish and AIB GOs, once in the EUR 0.05–0.10/MWh range, has now expanded to as much as EUR 0.15 -0.80/MWh.

Polish GO developments

• In July 2025 so far, TGE memberships increased modestly to 3,356 members from 3,297 in May 2025, reflecting continued interested by market players in Polish GO market.
• In June, trading volumes rose to 2.98 TWh from 2.43 TWh, while the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) declined from PLN 3.78/MWh to PLN 4.89/MWh. At the same time, cancelled volumes fell from 3.33 TWh to 2.37 TWh, according to TGE.
• The accompanying graph illustrates the evolution of monthly market activity and VWAP of Polish GOs over the past three years.