In March 2023, average renewable GO prices for the current year (CY) were at EUR 6.32/MWh, while nuclear CY prices stood at EUR 1.31/MWh. Throughout 2023, nuclear GO CY+1 prices fluctuated but remained relatively stable, peaking at EUR 0.96/MWh before gradually declining.
By early 2024, nuclear CY prices had dropped below EUR 1/MWh, reaching EUR 0.26/MWh in February 2024, and continued to fall to EUR 0.14/MWh by October 2024.
The most recent data from March 2025 shows a nuclear CY-1 price of EUR 0.13/MWh, reflecting a stabilisation at low levels.
Renewable GO CY prices, particularly Hydro/Solar/Wind (HSW) GOs, also followed a declining trend. From EUR 6.07-7.71/MWh in March 2023, prices gradually fell below EUR 1/MWh by mid-2024, with the lowest point at EUR 0.66/MWh in March 2025, indicating a broader market correction.
As a result, the spread between CY-1 renewable and nuclear GOs has tightened from an average of EUR 5.40/MWh in June 2023 to around EUR 0.06/MWh by March 2025.
We also examined how many nuclear GOs could be purchased for the price of one renewable GO. Initially, this number fluctuated between six and eight in mid-2023, but by the end of the year, it increased to nine as nuclear prices fell more steeply than renewables. By March 2025, the ratio had declined to one and a half, amid narrowing price differentials.
Since the classification of investments in nuclear energy as sustainable under the EU Taxonomy in 2020, demand for nuclear GOs has been on the rise. The trend was reinforced in 2023 when some buyers opted for cheap nuclear certificates when renewable GO prices climbed to EUR 10/MWh at the end of 2022.
Back then, arbitrage took place on a small scale as some traders and brokers rebranded their portfolios from “renewable” to “carbon-neutral”, in line with the EU Taxonomy.
The renewable to nuclear GO switch has been sustained into 2024 (see table below), according to preliminary data obtained by Veyt from some national registries. Specifically, Norway and Finland accounted for the 5 TWh of annual demand growth, while the Netherlands decreased its nuclear cancellation by 1 TWh.
In comparison, the supply is relatively steady, given that issuance costs form a significant component of the already low nuclear GO price.
Although the nuclear GO market is seeing higher cancellations, the nuclear bi-monthly GO auctions held by EPEX SPOT attracted no interest from either buyers or sellers since their launch in October 2024. As Veyt market sources explain, this is due to the auctions’ higher transaction costs compared to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, given the relatively low value of the nuclear GOs.
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