Too early to call the upcoming EP vote on ETS2

Among the hundreds of amendment proposals on the ETS revisions tabled by members of the European Parliament are one to scrap ETS2, the controversial new carbon pricing system for heating and road transport, and another to delay its start. The split runs through the EPP, the Parliament’s largest group, and also affects other groups.

Veyt has tested the assumptions behind its earlier assessment of the EPP amendments – full turnout and voting along group lines outside the EPP – against the closest precedent: the 29 April plenary vote on an amendment to postpone ETS2.

The analysis sets out what that vote showed, how it applies to today’s Parliament under different turnout scenarios, which EPP votes decide the outcome, and what this means for rapporteur Peter Liese.