EUA long term price forecast: macro worries near-term, scarcity supportive further out

We adjust our forecast to factor in new assumptions on renewable power capacity and slightly changed forward prices for fuels. For the near-term, we assume the ongoing turbulent macro-economic environment will outweigh the “gaze-lifting” traders will need to perform to align with the steep drop in supply that will start in 2027. Delaying that effect has led us to slash our 2025 forecast (average price) from EUR 92 to EUR 80/t.