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16. July, 2026

EU ETS review: Closing in on the big reveal

European Carbon
Hæge Fjellheim , Ingvild Sørhus , Jørgen Hansen

With the latest media reports, the pieces are starting to fall in place ahead of the big reveal for the EU ETS review proposal set for tomorrow. The quoted ranges for the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF) determining the pace of the phase 5 cap trajectory give space for emissions also beyond 2040, with the cap hitting zero in 2045 or 2046 compared to 2041 under a 3.4% LRF (Veyt base case). Higher ambition during the first part of phase 5 allows for a softened LRF later on, lowering prices in 2040 by EUR 70/t.

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Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates

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