With the latest media reports, the pieces are starting to fall in place ahead of the big reveal for the EU ETS review proposal set for tomorrow. The quoted ranges for the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF) determining the pace of the phase 5 cap trajectory give space for emissions also beyond 2040, with the cap hitting zero in 2045 or 2046 compared to 2041 under a 3.4% LRF (Veyt base case). Higher ambition during the first part of phase 5 allows for a softened LRF later on, lowering prices in 2040 by EUR 70/t.
A weekly cap of what moved EUA prices and a clear view of the week ahead. We set out the drivers, their directional impact, and what matters next.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
