Veyt forecasts that the total RES-E EECS GO demand growth for the 2025 disclosure period will land at around 5.1 %. The total cancellation is expected to reach approximately 869 TWh, 42.1 TWh higher than in the 2024 disclosure period.

The same number, including Spanish and Swedish domestic GOs, two certificate schemes that are complementary to the EECS GO market fundamentals, reached 1,007 TWh, 57 TWh or 6 % higher than the 2024 disclosure period.

RES-E GO cancellations

Seven countries (the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, France, Austria, Denmark, Portugal) contributed 49 TWh to the demand growth that was seen in 2025. Veyt’s Medium-Term Model forecasts that demand in Germany will grow from 207.1 TWh to 217 TWh in the 2025 disclosure period.

The Spanish market saw the highest demand increase at 19.2 %. EECS RES-E GO cancellations rose 5.1 TWh while total cancellations that combine EECS and national GOs rose from 106.5 TWh to 126.9 TWh.

Italy’s additional 6.2 TWh in cancellations was likely caused by additional beneficiaries of the Energy Release scheme.

RES-E GO cancellations in the Netherlands grew 9.3 TWh at the expense of fossil GO cancellations.

A cluster of seven small-sized markets like Hungary, Lithuania and Slovakia saw a 21.8 % average year-on-year demand growth, adding 4.6 TWh.

RES-E GO demand in Belgium, Greece and Norway receded marginally year-on-year, while Sweden was the only country in the AIB that saw significant retraction in GO cancellations. Swedish nuclear GO cancellations remained stable while RES-E GO cancellations decreased 5.1 TWh.

Nuclear GO cancellations

Nuclear GO cancellations remained at relatively stable levels across the AIB. The 19.6 TWh year-on-year increase in nuclear EECS GO cancellations in Sweden is almost completely offset by a 18.7 TWh decrease in nuclear national GO cancellations.

Expiries

RES-E EECS GO expiries rose year-on-year 9 TWh to 33.5 TWh during the 2025 disclosure period. The rise in expiries indicates the market’s inability to use 100 % of the available GO volumes due to the oversupply.

Market impact

The 2025 disclosure period is over for all AIB domains except Switzerland and Germany. The expected cancellations numbers in Switzerland and Germany, in combination with the expiries, suggest that the total outflows from the GO market during the 2025 disclosure period will only be 3 TWh lower than the total inflows (issuances). This development kept the oversupply stable at 263 TWh or 30 % of the total demand.

The GO market remains structurally oversupplied in 2026. However, RES-E GO demand maintains a solid growth rate while, simultaneously, the oversupply seems to exacerbate expiries.

On the supply side, the sustained growth in wind and solar installed capacity has already caused year-to-date renewable output to outperform 2025’s output. However, weak hydrological indicators in Scandinavia and the Alps point towards a summer of low hydro output which could potentially offset some of the wind and solar supply growth.

The potential continuation in the current demand and expiry growth rate in 2026, combined with a slower supply growth rate due to the current hydrological conditions, could potentially change the picture in the GO market. 2026 could become the first year after 2022, when outflows will surpass inflows to the GO market. This could lead to a mild decrease in the market’s oversupply. Albeit, if there is no structural change caused by a regulatory development, the GO market is expected to remain oversupplied for the following years.