Recent data from national Guarantees of Origin (GO) registries, following the German 2024 disclosure deadline on 1 July 2025, indicates that the German GO cancellations have been plateauing. This affects the 2024 market balance and pushes Veyt’s expectations of a market squeeze from 2027 to 2028. This is now reflected in our medium- and long-term forecasts.
Taking into consideration our latest assessment of the German demand, the latest run of our medium-term model forecasts a historically high market balance at 233.1 TWh for the closure of 2024. These volumes are rolled over to 2025 with the possibility to be used in countries where there are no temporal matching requirements between production and consumption.
Our long-term model has been updated as a consequence, now forecasting an annual volume weighted average price (VWAP) for 2025 at EUR 0.77/MWh, as opposed to EUR 0.82/MWh in the previous run, under the Veyt base case.
With year-to-date VWAP for 2025 at EUR 0.71/MWh, our model predicts prices to be higher than EUR 0.77/MWh on average for the rest of the 2025 disclosure period to increase the annual VWAP to EUR 0.77/MWh under normal weather conditions.
However, 2025 has so far not been a good year for electricity production from renewable sources. The weather sensitivity feature of our long-term model generates an even more bullish outlook for 2025 with an annual VWAP of EUR 1.14/MWh based on input parameters corresponding to the dry year of 2022.
Looking further into the future, the Veyt base case projects a tightening of the market, with demand (including unsatisfied demand) exceeding total supply (including rollover) in 2028, resulting in a VWAP spike of EUR 5.06/MWh. Our previous run projected the market to be undersupplied already in 2027, as it reflected a lower rollover from 2024.
With the latest update, GO prices are forecasted to gradually go down from 2028, under current policies, with the market balance shifting to an oversupplied market again from 2032 onwards.
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