Starting from the beginning of 2023, there has been a noticeable increase in the export of Guarantees of Origin (GOs) from the Serbian registry to various countries, as per official statistics from the Serbian registry. This trend was previously discussed in our article earlier in May. While most of these exports are believed to be going to non-EU countries like Switzerland, there have been indications from market sources in Spain that some Serbian GOs have been making their way into Spain. This situation may have contributed to a spread between Spanish domestic GOs and AIB GOs as observed below.
However, the CNMC has today announced that they are thoroughly examining the legal framework related to the acceptance of imports and exports of GOs from Serbia. This examination would take into account both national and European regulations. As a result, until further notice, the import and export of these Guarantees of Origin are being suspended by the CNMC.
The suspension of Serbian GOs by Spanish authorities is likely to lead to a reduction in the spread between Spanish domestic GOs and AIB GOs, leading to possible price increase in Spanish domestic GOs. However, given the relatively small size of the Serbian market (around 10 GWh) the impact overall would be small for the large AIB market area.
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