Highlights

After a brief price uptick at the end of May and into early June – driven by increased buying interest and limited supply – forward REGO vintage prices resumed their downward trend.

CP24 prices softened, with bid-ask ranges falling from GBP 1.30-1.70/MWh at the start of June to GBP 0.80-1.25/MWh.

CP25 followed a similar trajectory, easing from GBP 1.40-1.80/MWh to GBP 1.10-1.50/MWh.

In contrast to last year, when CP22 REGOs were actively traded in June ahead of the Fuel Mix Disclosure (FMD) deadline, this year saw subdued activity. Residual CP23 volumes traded in the GBP 0.15–0.30/MWh range during the first half of June.

However, prices began to firm in the final two weeks as the FMD deadline neared, marking a departure from last year’s sharp price decline in the closing days of June.

Regulator Ofgem extended the FMD deadline for electricity suppliers from 1 July to 22 July, citing persistent issues with the new Renewable Electricity Register launched in May 2025.

Market participants reported delays in certificate transfers due to technical glitches, prompting the regulator to allow additional time for FMD.

Renewable generation

Wind, which typically contributes around 75 % of the UK’s renewable generation, underperformed in CP23 (April 2024 – March 2025) with wind speeds particularly poor in Q1 2025.

As a result, wind output declined from 74.7 TWh in CP22 to 72.5 TWh in CP23, despite a 739 MW increase in installed wind capacity in 2024.

Solar output remained relatively flat at approximately 4.7 TWh across both years, despite a drop in the average sunshine hours due to increase in installed capacity.

In contrast, bioenergy, which is less sensitive to weather conditions, grew from 16 TWh to 20 TWh.

As a result, total renewable generation in CP23 rose modestly from 95.36 TWh to 97.34 TWh, driven primarily by the increase in bioenergy output.

Early CP24 (April–May 2025) has seen suboptimal wind conditions persist. This contributed to a steep decline in renewable generation in April 2025, falling to 6.77 TWh from 9.49 TWh in April 2024.

Generation in May 2025 is also expected to be lower, reflecting continued weak wind conditions.

Electricity demand

UK electricity demand, after several years of decline, began to recover,rising from 276.71 TWh in CP22 to 279.87 TWh in CP23. This increase, all else equal, supports REGO demand, as higher consumption means more certificates are required to match renewable supply.

CP23 price movements

Despite recovering electricity demand, weak REGO supply – constrained by poor wind and solar output – was insufficient to sustain prices.

CP23 REGOs have fallen over 95 % from peak 2023 levels in October 2023 and more than 90 % since January 2025.

This sharp correction reflects a structural reset following the supply shock post-Brexit, when 70–80 TWh of EU certificates exited the UK market, pushing prices to unsustainable highs.

These elevated prices prompted many businesses to pause or reduce their REGO purchases. The resulting demand-side inertia has persisted, even as prices have fallen, and continues to weigh on the market.

Corporate procurement strategies have also shifted. Many UK end-users remain disengaged from regular REGO trading, unlike their EU counterparts, who benefit from fiscal incentives and regulatory drivers like: The 30 % RES-E sourcing requirement under state aid for indirect emission cost, and electricity surcharge exemptions linked to renewable procurement.

In contrast, UK buyers typically face a single price point per contract cycle, limiting flexibility and engagement. This lack of active participation continues to depress short-term demand, though competitive pricing may help re-stimulate interest over time.

REGO midterm model

The REGO market is currently in contango, with future vintages trading at higher prices as traders and renewable generators anticipate a potential demand recovery.

As a result, forward prices have experienced relatively smaller declines, even amid expectations of a substantial renewable build-out in future.

Despite increased capacity, adverse weather is expected to continue suppressing generation.

Our medium-term model estimates CP24 REGO supply at 127.76 TWh, little changed from 128.57 TWh in CP23 and 127.45 TWh in CP22. Nearly all issued REGOs are expected to be cancelled, reflecting strong compliance demand.

Based on price elasticity and observed market dynamics, CP24 REGO prices are forecast to trade in the GBP 0.50–0.75/MWh range, assuming no major shocks to the demand-supply balance.

Top REGO holders

As of 23 June 2025, the top REGO holders show notable year-on-year changes compared to 25 June 2024.

E. ON Next Energy shed its holdings from 15.2 million to 3.5 million REGOs, while Centrica Energy’s portfolio increased from just 0.1 million to 5.4 million REGOs.

Likewise, Ørsted Salg & Service’s volume grew from 1,487 million to over 5.8 million REGOs, while Octopus Energy more than tripled its position.

These movements may partly be attributed to delays and transfer issues associated with the rollout of the new RER registry platform.

Outlook

With supply expected to remain constricted in CP24, REGO prices will largely depend on demand for green electricity.

Despite a 2021 government call for evidence  for designing a framework for transparency of carbon content in energy products which included a broader review of the REGO scheme and a 2023 summary of responses, major regulatory changes are not expected. As a result, the demand is likely to remain subdued, keeping a lid on prices.

As mentioned above, Veyt’s midterm model forecasts CP24 prices to drop slightly to the GBP 0.50–0.75/MWh range, barring major market events.