As anticipated in our prior month’s forecast, Polish Guarantees of Origin (GO) prices experienced a significant decline on January 12, 2023. The most substantial drop was observed in the 2024 GOs, with a decrease of 11%, while the 2023 GOs saw a 10% reduction. Notably, despite this decrease, the 2023 Polish GOs maintained a higher price compared to the AIB EECS GOs, with a difference of approximately 1 Euro/MWh.
The imposition of a 97% windfall tax during the second half of 2022 on spot transactions, played a crucial role in limiting supply in the past. This restriction contributed to maintaining the prices of Polish GOs relatively stable. In contrast, the prices of 2023 AIB GOs experienced a decline during this period.
Presently, there is a notable trend among sellers to divest their 2023 GO holdings. This, combined with the historically high premium of Polish GOs over AIB, is exerting additional downward pressure on prices. As a result, prices are currently in a declining trend, and further decreases are anticipated in the near future.
Price trends Polish GOs for 2023 and 2024 saw big drops in their prices in January, while the prices of future GOs fell less. 2024 GOs recorded the most significant drop, with prices falling by up to 11% month-on-month, closely followed by the 2023 vint…
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