To assess the effects of a hypothetical all-encompassing trade war between the US and Europe, Veyt has modelled a possible EUA demand shock if steel, cement, and car manufacturers are no longer able to export to the US. Emissions would be reduced on average by 14 Mt each year in the period 2025-2035. The actual effect on market balance and prices will be limited, due to the Market Stability Reserve coming to the rescue. In this worst-case scenario, we see somewhat lower prices in the years up to 2030, then slightly higher prices between 2032 and 2034.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
