For the first time, the maritime sector is required to surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) to cover its emissions. This week, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) began publishing 2024 shipping emissions data under the Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)system.
Based on the newly released MRV data, Veyt estimates that around 90 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions fall within the scope of the EU ETS, meaning shipping companies will need to surrender 36.1 million EUAs for 2024 compliance. This is 2.2 million EUAs more than our previous estimate. The increase is driven almost entirely by higher emissions from container and cargo ships, while emissions from LNG carriers decreased significantly last year. Emissions from oil- and chemical tankers increased by around 5 %, while emissions from bulk ships and bulk carriers decreased 1-2% on average, see Figure 1.
Figure 1 presents estimated emissions within the EU ETS scope for 2023, 2024, and 2025. Shipping companies will be required to surrender EUAs to cover 40% of their 2024 emissions and 70% of their 2025 emissions. Note that 2023 predates the inclusion of the maritime sector in the EU ETS; therefore, no allowances need to be surrendered for that year.
A total of over 13,200 ships are included in the dataset, approximately 400 more than last year. This is notable, as there had been speculation that the bureaucratic burden of the EU ETS might deter ships from sailing to Europe.
The data indicates that ship emissions covered under the MRV scope exceeded 140 Mt in 2024, the highest level recorded since 2019. Maritime emissions declined sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic but have steadily increased over the past three years. It’s important to note that the EU ETS scope is narrower than the MRV scope. It includes 100% of emissions from voyages between two EU/EEA ports and 50% of emissions from voyages between an EU/EEA port and a non-EU port. Additionally, voyages to certain small islands and the EU’s outermost regions are exempt from the EU ETS until 2030.
So far the maritime sector shows verified emissions of 64.5 Mt. We expect a substantial amount of underreporting for this sector, supported by the 2024 MRV data reported by EMSA. We expect the verified emissions for this sector will be close to complete first at the compliance deadline end of September.
Based on the EMSA data, Veyt estimate that EU ETS emissions from Container-, Ro-Ro- and other cargo ships increased from 30.4 Mt in 2023 to 38.5 Mt in 2024 (+27%). Emissions from container ships had decreased steadily over the 5 years prior to 2024.
Emissions from container ships increased in 2024, driven mainly by longer sailing distances and higher speeds. As noted in earlier analysis, a rise compared to 2023 emissions was anticipated. Many container ships and tankers from Asia have rerouted and extended voyages around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Over the past several years, many ships have slowed down to reduce bunker fuel consumption, since fuel use increases roughly with the cube of speed. However, the recent increase in sailing speeds has led to a substantial rise in maritime emissions. With high daily charter rates, the cost of renting a ship per day, charterers are incentivized to sail faster, cutting voyage time even if it means higher emissions. Once container ships begin using the Suez Canal again, emissions are expected to decline.
Beyond speed and distance, the volume of container cargo has also contributed to the emissions increase. Data from Europe’s largest port, Rotterdam, shows that container throughput rose by 2.5% from 2023 to 2024.
Throughput is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and international trade dynamics. In Q1 of 2025, the volume of containers in Rotterdam was down 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024. Geopolitical tensions, labor strikes and low water levels in European rivers have congested European ports will affect throughput over the summer.
Emissions from LNG carriers surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as pipeline gas supplies from Russia were cut off and Europe shifted heavily toward imported LNG to meet its energy needs.
In 2024, however, emissions from LNG carriers fell sharply – down 20% compared to 2023 levels. This decline is partly attributed to reduced gas-fired power generation. So far in 2025, gas-fired power generation remains broadly in line with 2024 levels. LNG storage levels in 2023 and 2024 were quite similar overall. As of July 1st, 2025, storage is at 59% capacity -18.5 percentage points lower than the same date in 2024, when storage was at 78%.
We expect emissions to decline by approximately 3% next year, reaching 87.3 million tons. However, there are numerous uncertainties, ranging from geopolitical tensions and ongoing U.S. trade disputes to the impact of new regulations, such as the FuelEU Maritime initiative that came into effect in 2025. As coverage expands to 70%, the incentive to cut emissions is also growing.
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