As indicated by the most recent bid/ask prices of Polish GOs, we witnessed the price spreads between Polish GOs and their EU counterparts have significantly narrowed due to the considerable price growth of Polish GOs, with the spread of spot GOs (2022 and 2023 vintages) decreasing from 3 EUR/MWh to 0.3 to 0.5 EUR/MWh. Moreover, it was the first time we witnessed the backwardation of Polish GOs, mainly driven by the growing demand to cope with the approaching electricity disclosure deadline. Although the price spreads between Polish GOs and EECS GOs have decreased dramatically, we expect the demand for Polish GOs will maintain a robust upward trend, as the unbundled GOs are considered an acceptable option for Polish energy-intensive companies for the purposes of State Aid schemes.
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