The EU ETS 2 is drawing serious interest — and the numbers show it. Our recent webinar with the European Energy Exchange (EEX) brought in a large audience of traders, analysts, consultants, and energy market professionals, all eager to understand what’s unfolding in this new carbon market.
With the first secondary market contracts now trading and policy debates heating up across the EU, there’s no shortage of questions.
To help make sense of the shifting landscape, experts from Veyt and EEX broke down what’s happening and what to watch next. Whether you’re a trader, analyst, fuel supplier, policy maker or consultant desk looking to stay ahead of carbon price dynamics, here are the key takeaways.
“We’ve seen headlines on political headwinds and real policy uncertainty, whilst the Commission reiterated their commitment to the current 2027 launch timeline.” – Ellen De Vocht, Head of EU Representation at EEX.
The EU ETS 2, set to cover emissions from road transport, buildings, and small industry, faces both a tight schedule and increasing political scrutiny. While the framework is largely in place at the EU level, Ellen De Vocht noted that most Member States had missed their June 2024 deadline to transpose the ETS 2 Directive into national law—triggering enforcement actions.
Despite that, she emphasized that national implementation is catching up, and a delay is currently not foreseen unless Brent oil or natural gas prices spike significantly in 2026.
“Market liquidity is virtually absent so far, but that’s expected. The futures market only just kicked off and the seller side needs to be activated by a risk premium.” – Marcus Ferdinand, Chief Analytics Officer at Veyt.
The secondary market for EU ETS 2 launched in May 2025, but activity remains thin. Initial contracts are trading at a tight spread to EUA prices, reflecting trader uncertainty and a wait-and-see approach to compliance deadlines and regulatory signals.
According to Steffen Loebner, Head of Environmental Products at EEX, the exchange is preparing to launch its own futures product in July. He explained that the contract design mirrors EUA futures, easing onboarding for market participants, but noted that physical settlement will only begin in 2027 unless the start is delayed.
“We’re forecasting EUA2 prices to rise from €82/t in 2027 to over €160/t in the early 2030s. The cap is tight and clean tech adoption needs to scale—fast.” – Harry Öhman, Senior EU Carbon Analyst at Veyt.
Veyt’s modeling shows a tight market ahead. While initial emissions in ETS 2 sectors will be below the cap, that flips quickly: by 2031, supply will be 30% below expected emissions unless aggressive decarbonization materializes. This could drive a sharp price increase in the early 2030s.
Heat pumps and EVs are key technologies, but their uptake must grow 6–11x by 2035. That’s no small feat. Even with low average abatement costs, high carbon prices will be needed to bridge the gap—and policy support will be crucial to smooth the transition.
On the policy side, Market Stability Reserve (MSR) mechanisms offer some buffer, but invalidate starting in 2031, removing a key source of flexibility just as the market tightens most.
The webinar offers far more detail on how price spreads may evolve, what early trading activity implies for long-term liquidity, and how policy uncertainty may (or may not) change the ETS 2 roadmap.
Click here to access the full recording of the EU ETS 2 Summer 2025 Market Outlook webinar — and get the insights directly from the experts at Veyt and EEX.
The EU ETS 2 doesn’t start compliance until 2027—but the market is already moving:
Waiting until 2027 means missing critical signals that could affect trading strategy, financial exposure, and long-term decarbonization decisions.
That’s where Veyt comes in. Our EU ETS 2 Market Intelligence Solution delivers:
Whether you’re a trader, analyst, or risk manager, we’ll help you act early—with clarity and confidence. Book a walkthrough of Veyt’s EU ETS 2 analytics platform or reply here and we’ll connect you with a specialist.
Learn more about our EU ETS 2 solution or request a walkthrough meeting to review your needs with our EU ETS2 specialists.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
