Following Monday’s vote in ENVI (lead committee) and previous votes in ITRE, TRAN and AGRI (opinion committees), it is now for the European Parliament to decide a position on the 2040 climate target, to be able to start negotiations with the member states in the Council, who agreed on their position last week.
Thursday, 13 November, around midday, the European Parliament will vote on various proposals for Europe’s 2040 climate target. Rapporteur Knotek’s rejection proposal will almost certainly be rejected despite the support of the Patriots and the ECR group.
A compromise text backed by the Social Democrats, the Liberals, the Greens, and many members of the EPP group (centre-right) will most likely be carried, as it was in the environment committee (ENVI) on 10 November.
That said, much depends on the intra-group discipline of the EPP. Theoretically, if we assume everyone from the above-mentioned groups, plus the Left, endorses the compromise text, it would be sufficient with some 50 of the overall 188 EPP votes.
In ENVI (the lead committee) and ITRE (one of the opinion committees), approximately two-thirds of the EPP members backed the text.
According to the plenary schedule, the vote will take place between 13:00 and 15:00 and follow the order of the voting list here. The full list of amendment proposals subject to vote can be found here. The plenary vote can be watched live here.
The voting will proceed according to the following logic (as laid out in the voting list):
1. Vote on rejection
2. Vote on the ENVI committee report – this is the collection of amendments (block vote) 1-14 and 17-40.
3. Vote on separate amendments put forward by individual MEPs or groups of MEPs:
– AM 48-51 and 60,61, and 64 all contain a suspension of a 2040 target or a deletion of a 2040 target in the Climate Law
– AM 62 says no ETS2, AM 63 delays its start till 2030
– AM 65 contains a new provision to continue free allocation to industry and structurally change the MSR functioning.
– AM 41-43 is from a left MEP and implies more ambition and less flexibility: 92% target, no permanent removals in the EU ETS, and no flexibility across sectors. The reason why amendments 15 and 16 are omitted from the block vote (1-14 and 17-40), is that they are challenged by the alternative proposals for a higher target and no use of removals tabled by the Left (42D and 43D). If the Left’s amendments are approved (unlikely), 15 and 16 will fall.
4. Final vote
5. Finally, the vote labelled in the voting list “referral back” is again a confirming vote that the committee in charge of the file – in this case, the ENVI committee – has the mandate
The crucial point is thus the block vote (pt 2). If this is adopted and confirmed in steps 4 and 5, we expect the Commission to swiftly organise trilogues where the Danish Presidency will represent the Council and rapporteur Knotek alongside the shadow rapporteurs from the other political groups in the Parliament. In this case, given the overall similarities between the two texts, we expect the interinstitutional negotiation to be relatively straightforward and the Climate Law amendment to be adopted within the year.
The main differences between the Council position and the ENVI report (and presumably also the full Parliament view) are, as pointed out in our previous analysis that 1) the ENVI position adds some flavour to what constitutes “high quality” when it comes to international credits and 2) the ENVI position clarifies that the additional 5% option for credit use by member states are calculated on targets outside the EU ETS sectors.
These inconsistencies will have to be sorted out in the upcoming negotiations. It remains to be seen whether other elements that are currently subject to much confusion (such as the overall credit volume implied by the 5%/85% percent provision) will be clarified during the trilogue or whether the ambiguity is in fact intentional and will be kept and solved in the upcoming Commission impact assessment on credits and ETS review.
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