EU ETS Intelligence

Timely, in-depth analysis of policy and market developments – translated into balance and price impact.

Increasing volatility. Increasing uncertainty.

EUA prices have recently reacted sharply to statements from policymakers and key industry leaders, ahead of the upcoming European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) review. The statements openly challenge the trading system, calling for structural changes.

This uncertainty raises complex questions for market participants:

Which policy proposals are politically feasible?
What are short-term implications for sentiment and price formation?
How sensitive are prices to possible ETS review outcomes?
How would cap adjustments or allocation changes reshape supply?
What does this mean for my exposure risk and investments?

Get ahead of policy-driven price shifts

Stay up-to-date on the latest from Brussels. Veyt’s analysts use proprietary models to turn policy signals into tradable intelligence.

Through our market intelligence platform you get a clear view on what policy changes are proposed, what is the potential impact on prices, and what to watch next – so you can adjust hedges, forecasts and strategy with confidence.

Timely analysis and commentary

Our analysis is published for clients and frequently quoted by Tier-1 media, articulating Veyt's view on how political, structural, and market developments affect the EU ETS.

Timely analysis and commentary

Our analysis is published for clients and frequently quoted by Tier-1 media, articulating Veyt's view on how political, structural, and market developments affect the EU ETS.

Clarity on market design

Get visibility into which reform proposals are gaining traction, and which as political positioning. By tracking the full policy cycle, from proposal to regulation, we provide an informed view on what has traction and what does not.

Clarity on market design

Get visibility into which reform proposals are gaining traction, and which as political positioning. By tracking the full policy cycle, from proposal to regulation, we provide an informed view on what has traction and what does not.

Policy to price interpretations

Understand how regulatory change reshapes the EU ETS supply path - and what that implies for price trajectory. We translate evolving policy design scenarios into quantified impacts on allowance supply, balance and prices across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.

Policy to price interpretations

Understand how regulatory change reshapes the EU ETS supply path - and what that implies for price trajectory. We translate evolving policy design scenarios into quantified impacts on allowance supply, balance and prices across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.

Drivers

Tracking short- and long-term market trends to clarify current and potential impacts from disparate drivers

Market behaviour

Analysing participant behaviour and market sentiment while commenting on price drivers. An in-depth focus on industry sectors by understanding their marginal abatement costs and trade behaviour allows for informed decision-making. Our pan-European power market modelling is the backbone for our granular utility-sector insights and hedging strategy analysis

Policy developments

Following relevant European carbon and energy market legislation, providing foresight on political outcomes, and assessing market impacts

Supply & demand forecasts

Generating insights on how policy ambition and regulatory change shape short- and long-term supply dynamics. Addressing sensitivities of key assumptions for EU ETS market participants. Following sector-specific trends, production data, and decarbonisation pathways to track and forecast demand for carbon European Union allowances (EUAs)

Technical analysis

Identifying key trends in the market, spotting relevant support/resistance levels, and technical patterns

Market data

Key market data for the EU ETS and the wider energy complex. Prices, volume, open interest, seasonality charts to assess liquidity, and participant behaviour

The latest data, analysis, and forecasts

Gain access to comprehensive qualitative and quantitative market intelligence tailored to your requirements.

Available in multiple formats

Every team has different workflows and ways of working. Our EU ETS Solution is available via a modern, user-friendly platform with REST API and export to Excel/CVS. Simply login and access over 150 ready-to-use datasets, curves and the latest reports or chat with our consultants about tailored analysis and scenario-modelling.

Featured resources

MSR Reform: Scenarios and price trajectories

Presented in Brussels in partnership with ERCST, this whitepaper models alternative MSR design options and quantifies their impact on allowance supply, market balance, and price trajectories.

EU ETS Weekly price drivers

A weekly cap of what moved EUA prices and a clear view of the week ahead. We set out the drivers, their directional impact, and what matters next.

Latest analyst updates

Article

26. February, 2026

Italy calls for ETS suspension, other member states oppose

Article

25. February, 2026

Europe’s chemical industry will be hit hard by rising carbon prices

Anders Nordeng Harry Öhman Henry Lush

Article

17. February, 2026

Parliament’s draft report shows entire ETS2 policy toolbox remains open

Article

13. February, 2026

Knives are out with ETS on the menu

Article

12. February, 2026

Carbon drops as German Chancellor Merz indicates willingness to throw the EU ETS under the bus

Ingvild Sørhus

Article

11. February, 2026

UKAs slide rapidly on policy and political turmoil

Article

10. February, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Price Outlook Under a 3.4% Linear Reduction Factor

Ingvild Sørhus Jørgen Hansen

Article

10. February, 2026

Environmental costs are reshaping bunker fuel composition

Article

10. February, 2026

Free allocation leak reveals wide range of options, likely the starting point for EC impact assessment

Ready to get the latest updates, prices and forecasts for EU ETS?