Why gutting federal GHG regulation leaves North American carbon prices unaffected

In both Europe and the US, the past two weeks saw major policy developments toward a hefty loosening of greenhouse gas reduction ambition: in Europe, officials suggested ‘delaying’ the EU ETS and lowering the stringency of its targets while the US Environmental Protection Agency revoked the very basis on which greenhouse gas reduction measures are even implemented.

EUA prices plummeted on the back of these developments, whereas the price of allowances in the Western Climate Initiative and Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative remained largely unaffected. The reason: rules for the North American carbon markets are set at the subnational level by participating jurisdictions, and had already experienced a reaction to fundamental threats by the Trump administration last April that is now priced in.