US midterm elections: impact on the WCI and RGGI carbon markets

Although the race for control over Congress has dominated coverage of the midterm elections, it is states’ gubernatorial elections that will play a larger role in the outlook for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon markets. Governors play a key role in determining a state’s membership in a compliance carbon market, and nine states across the two markets – California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont – hold gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, 3 November.

The analysis sets out the candidates’ positions on their states’ carbon markets and decarbonisation targets, the role of governors and state legislatures in any change to market membership, and what the results could mean for RGGI and WCI allowance prices.