Trade wars and gutting federal climate policy: how exposed are WCI and RGGI?

The Trump administration has taken immediate action to repeal federal climate mitigation efforts – from withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement to halting approval of new wind projects. Although the state-level cap-and-trade programs under RGGI and WCI fall out of the administration’s federal reach, the removal of federal climate subsidies in addition to potential tariffs on Canadian electricity imports will see a rise in emissions across the US. The resulting increase in emissions will be fundamentally bullish for WCI and RGGI allowance prices. If regulators in both programs continue to prioritize ambitious supply caps as a part of their ongoing ETS reform processes, as the new administration repeals federal climate initiatives, their respective carbon prices will play a more integral role in driving state emission reduction efforts.