The French election – does it matter to European carbon?

The upcoming election is projected to result either in a far-right majority government or a hung parliament. One of the key objectives of the Rassemblement National (National Rally) is to lower energy prices, most notably by cutting VAT on fuels. A shift in government may or may not impact the French positions on ongoing EU policy files. More immediately, we see chances that a sentiment-driven reaction could weigh on carbon prices in the event of a far-right victory.