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17. October, 2023

Free allocation through 2030: Estimates and implications

European Carbon
Henry Lush

Changes to benchmarks, CBAM, carbon leakage exposure factor, and the cross-sectoral correction factor will prompt sharp cuts to free allocation during the 2026-2030 period. CBAM sectors will see the greatest total volume reduction, however non-carbon leakage exposed sectors will see their allocation fall to 0 in 2030.

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Free allocation has been the primary policy instrument through which the European Union has shielded EU ETS compliant industry from the risk of carbon leakage (outsourcing of production or investment – and thus emissions). Through the EU ETS’s third tradin…

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Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates

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