Inclusion in the EU ETS will have a large effect on maritime stakeholders. Both shipowners and national administrations will need to move quickly to be ready for the new rules to apply from January 2024. For shipowners, the additional operational cost of around €95 per tonne of CO2 will represent a substantial competitive advantage for low-emission vessels. As for the overall ETS market balance, the scope expansion will entail a modest tightening, and should logically be a slightly bullish factor for EUA prices. Some of the effect seems to have been priced in already, but we might expect more bullish pressure from 2026 onwards, as shipowners will then need to account for their full emissions.
The inclusion of maritime emissions is one of the major changes to the EU ETS directive as part of the recalibration to help the EU achieve its overall climate target for 2030, namely an abatement of at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. Up until now, cli…
A weekly cap of what moved EUA prices and a clear view of the week ahead. We set out the drivers, their directional impact, and what matters next.
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