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16. April, 2024

2030 carbon price forecast: from surplus to shortage – price to surge in 2026 and 2027

European Carbon
EU ETS Team

The current price of European emission allowances – EUAs – reflects demand destruction and increased auction volumes in 2024 and 2025. They probably do not factor in sufficiently the soon-to-come sharp tightening of supply. For the years 2027-2030, Veyt forecasts annual shortages in the order of 100 to 190 Mt worth of EUAs. We predict prices to average EUR 67/t in 2024, jump sharply in 2026, then peak at €162/t in 2027, before stabilizing around EUR 150 in 2030.

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Current state of the market: Sharp drop in emissions, even sharper price drop One year ago, the EU ETS was in a triumphant mode. With emission allowances (EUAs) having peaked at 100 euros per tonne worth of CO2 in February 2023, they were still trading ar…

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Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Carbon
EU ETS1, EU ETS2, North American Carbon, GCC
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Fuels
Biomethane, Transport fuels
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs)
Asset valuation, Deal flow, Market prices
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates
Energy Attribute Certificates (EAC)
GOs, REGOs, Global Certificates

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