Polish GO market update: Easing price declines amid widening AIB spreads

Price trends

• The 2024 vintage remained stable at €0.14/MWh, while the 2025 vintage experienced the sharpest decline, dropping 12% to €0.53/MWh.
• Forward-dated vintages were mostly stable, with only minor decreases: the 2026 vintage fell 3% to €0.89/MWh, while both the 2027 and 2028 vintages declined by 1%, trading at €1.04/MWh and €1.12/MWh, respectively.
• Overall, the decline is less severe than last month’s drop of 15% to 22%, suggesting that bearish pressure on spot vintages is easing, although sentiment for later vintages remains cautious. This shift may be driven by expectations of a tighter supply-demand balance in the future—a trend also observed in the AIB GO market, where forward prices are seen as increasingly attractive. The Polish market, which typically has lower liquidity and lags behind AIB price movements, continues to reflect these dynamics.

EU spreads

• All Polish GO vintages are currently trading at a widening discount relative to their AIB counterparts—a trend that has persisted since January, reversing previous premiums.
• In the forward market, the discount increase is most pronounced: while AIB vintages for 2026, 2027, and 2028 have seen modest price gains, Polish vintages have remained mostly flat or experienced slight declines. This divergence, combined with AIB forward GO prices rising slightly, has led to discounts widening by approximately €0.04 to €0.07/MWh.
• The largest relative discounts are still seen in the spot vintages. The 2024 vintage has the most significant gap, trading at a 43% discount (€0.06/MWh), while the 2025 vintage trades at a discount of around 19% (€0.13/MWh).
• This divergence, combined with a slight rise in AIB forward GO prices, has led to discounts widening by approximately €0.04 to €0.07/MWh. Notably, the highest relative discounts are still observed in the spot vintages; the 2024 vintage shows the steepest discrepancy at 43% of its price (or €0.06/MWh), while the 2025 vintage trades at a discount of around 19% (or €0.13/MWh)..

Polish GO developments

• In March 2025, TGE membership increased modestly to 3,271 from 3,214 in February 2025, reflecting an increasingly competitive Polish GO market amid traders’ concerns over shrinking margins.
• Trading and canceled volumes declined slightly in February to 5 TWh and 2 TWh, respectively, while the weighted average price rose to 9.89 PLN/MWh, according to TGE. The accompanying graph illustrates the evolution of monthly market activity and volume-weighted average prices (VWAP) of Polish GOs over the past three years.