Polish GO market update: prices slide as AIB spreads broaden

Price trends

• 2024 vintage plunged 36 % to EUR 0.09/MWh, while the 2025 vintage fell 28 %, settling at EUR 0.38/MWh.
• Forward-dated vintages softened this downturn, with the 2026 contract down 11 % to EUR 0.79/MWh, the 2027 vintage off 18 % at EUR 0.85/MWh, and the 2028 vintage slipping 12 % to EUR 0.99/MWh.
• Overall, this month’s losses – ranging from 12 % to 36 % – exceed last month’s 1 %–12 % drops, underscoring mounting bearish pressure on spot vintages.
• On the supply side, the possibility to roll over older vintages (i.e., applying previous years’ production against current consumption) likely amplifies downward pressure, whereas only some AIB member countries permit this mechanism.
• On the demand side, non-RE100 Polish consumers may be reverting to the cheapest available electricity, further weighing on GO prices.

EU spreads

• All Polish GO vintages are currently trading at a widening discount relative to their AIB counterparts – a trend that has persisted since January 2025.
• The price spread between Polish and AIB GOs, once in the EUR 0.05–0.10/MWh range, has now expanded to as much as EUR 0.15–0.20/MWh in some cases.

Polish GO developments

• In May 2025, TGE memberships increased modestly to 3,297 members from 3,271 in March 2025, reflecting an increasingly competitive Polish GO market.
• In April, trading volumes declined from 5.78 TWh to 4.41 TWh, while canceled volumes fell from 4.72 TWh to 2.33 TWh, following the end of the disclosure deadline. Meanwhile, the weighted average price rose to PLN 6.39/MWh, according to TGE.
• The accompanying graph illustrates the evolution of monthly market activity and volume-weighted average prices (VWAP) of Polish GOs over the past three years.