Public consultation runs from 4 August until 5 September 2025. The Commission eyes to extend the aid mechanism to other sectors that are now also affected by carbon prices. Organic chemicals and aluminium production activities currently out of scope could be added, per our understanding.

For the newly included sectors, the Commission will work to determine their electricity consumption efficiency benchmarks. These feed into calculating the aid amount and are limited to inefficient production processes and will be adopted as a supplement to the ETS state aid guidelines.

Earlier this summer, ten Member States called for the scheme’s prolongation beyond 2030 and the inclusion of other energy-intensive sectors in the guidelines’ scope. The European Steel and Metals Action Plan mentions the Commission’s intention to work towards extending the lifetime of the state aid mechanism post-2030 by 2026.

The state aid scheme for indirect emission costs partially compensates for the costs incurred in the European carbon market. To qualify, companies operating in the eligible sectors can source a minimum of 30 % of their electricity from carbon-free/renewable sources, among other options, using Guarantees of Origin (GOs) and/or Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to meet this criterion.

Veyt’s research suggests that close to 2,500 companies could have received state aid for indirect emission costs in 2023, contributing to rising demand for GOs and PPAs in the EU/EEA. Veyt also quantified potential GO demand from state aid beneficiaries in Germany.

Demand could be further boosted if new sectors are included, thus having a potentially bullish effect on GO prices.

Another state aid scheme – for reduced electricity levies – could have as many as 6,500 beneficiaries, as discussed in a separate analysis. Consult the analysis in the links to read more about the sectors affected, national state aid schemes, the number of beneficiaries per country and the financial compensation.