Update: The market impact section has been updated to reflect the most recent government decision regarding support for the industry.
Around 60.5 TWh worth of GOs could be issued in Germany in 2028 or 16.5 % of the expected total renewables production in that year, according to a medium term forecast by the three German grid operators.
The Trend scenario assumes that combined renewables (hydro, biomass, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar) would produce around 366 TWh in 2028. Of these, 60.5 TWh would not receive any subsidies, therefore would be directly sold on the market and will be eligible to receive GOs.
The figure compares to 22.3 TWh production expected to be sold directly on the market in 2023 amid around 235 TWh total production. The scenario also foresees that Germany would likely miss its 2030 renewables targets with onshore wind installation in part…
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