In the last few days, the Italian registry appears to have published the final data of cancellations made during the 2024 disclosure period, as the numbers from the registry are not changing anymore. The final result is an increase of 23.4% to 113.7 TWh, compared to 92.2 TWh in 2023.

The increase can be attributed to the following factors:

• The effect of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) coming into force for the reporting year 2024 and the low GO prices, in the same way that this factor affected demand increases in many other AIB countries.
• The existence and introduction of two state aid schemes in Italy, related to the indirect carbon emissions costs and electricity levies, which incentivise industries to cover their electricity consumption with 30-50% renewable electricity.

Some other changes have occurred in the preliminary numbers that we published on 4 April. The Swedish overall demand growth was mild at 0.7% compared to 2023, if we factor in the cancellations of national Swedish GOs. In addition, the numbers from the Estonian registry remain incomplete as they lack the cancellations for March 2025.

Overall, this development in Italy has added 21.5 TWh more on the total AIB demand side. The total cancellation in the 20 domains for which we have available data is 26 TWh or around 5% higher than that of the 2023 disclosure period. Considering that the almost 25 TWh of demand that were lost in Norway were ex-domain cancellations, we are seeing that the total own-domain demand for these 20 domains increased by 51 TWh or 9% compared to last year. If this strong demand growth is reflected in the other 10 remaining AIB domains (most importantly Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Belgium) while renewable electricity production follows the weaker trend it has followed in the first quarter of 2025, we could see an upward push on RES-GO prices. This will become clearer when the cancellation numbers for Germany are published, after the end of the German disclosure period in July.