Veyt has tentatively updated its cumulative market balance prediction for 2024 to 184 TWh, up 29 TWh compared to our previous assessment of 155 TWh.
The update takes into consideration preliminary cancellation data from local registries and work done at Veyt to develop a method for market balance calculations, which reflects country-specific disclosure periods and considers AIB reporting errors.
Some 15 TWh of the 29 TWh increase reflects our new prediction of RES-E GO cancellations in the AIB, which builds on cancellation observations made from local registries.
While many registries have recorded an increase in cancellations, this has not been enough so far to overturn the persistent oversupply. A fuller picture will emerge once all data for the 2024 disclosure period and GO expiry data is made public, including from the German market where the disclosure period ends on 1 July 2025.
The remaining 14 TWh of the adjusted numbers refer to a change in method to an approach that reflects country-specific disclosure periods and considers AIB data errors.
The updated market balance assessment will be presented at the RECS Market Meeting on Wednesday, 9 April 2025, with a more detailed report to follow on the Veyt platform.
We will continue to update our predictions as soon as new data becomes available.
To discover how Veyt’s advanced analytical tools can support your initiatives, reach out to our team at contact@veyt.com.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
