A headline target for the 2040 amendment to the EU Climate Law seems within reach as the Environment Council heads into the afternoon session. Several issues remain to be hammered out, including the share and timing of international credit usage and the inclusion of a review clause. With many member states expressing their intention to finalize an agreement during today’s session, a qualified majority is on the cards for 2040. A 2040 aligned NDC ahead of COP30 seems less likely, as Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia remain staunch opponents of increased ambition. The EU may instead be left with a target range for an NDC rather than a specific percent target.

Today, the EU Environment Council is in session to attempt to reach agreement on both the 2040 climate target and on the 2035 NDC for COP30. In the first of two open sessions, Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra and each member states’ environment ministers have presented their view on the latest draft from the Danish presidency.

Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Greece have voiced their intention to vote against the draft. The Romanian minister equivocated without giving a direct indication of support or opposition, though the overall sentiment of the statement appeared more in line with the opposing bloc.

For some member states supporting the 90% headline target, conditions remain. France and Italy seem ready to back the proposal if the share of international credit usage is raised from 3% to 5%, with France explicitly saying it will not accept less than 5%. More ambitious countries, including Germany, argued for a maximum 3% share of international credits. The start date for international credit usage (with many arguing for 2031 rather than 2036), the total share of credits to be used towards the 2040 target, and the inclusion of a clause for review of the climate target may be used to push reticent member states over the finish line.

In order for a general approach to be reached, a qualified majority of member states must be in favor. This requires 55% of the total number of countries representing 65% of the total EU population. Based on the current orientation of member state and a broad alignment on the need to adopt an agreement during today’s meeting, compromise on a 2040 target with a headline goal of 90% reductions seems within reach.

We expect the Environment Council to vote on the 2040 target later today. A subsequent agreement on the 2035 NDC may also be on the table, however this value will require unanimous approval by all member states. Given a lack of unanimity on the 2040 target, it is unlikely that all member states will agree to set the 2035 NDC in line with a 90% 2040 target. The EU may instead be left with a target range for an NDC rather than a specific percent target.