Based primarily off developments last year, here is Veyt’s watchlist for the coming year in biomethane.
Price movements in 2025 suggested biomethane’s fortunes were strongly tied to the obligation scheme. Pricing for spot volumes strengthened after April, easing in November. Given the calendar cycle (31 January for verification submission to 30 June for issuance of document of compliance), and what was observed in 2025 we would expect most of the maritime biomethane trading activity for 2026 production to be concentrated in the second half of the year. That said, activity in H1 may give some insights as to how players are strategising.
The SBTi draft suggested that only sustainability-certified biomethane EACs would be eligible to reduce scope emissions. This appeared to have caused a rush for UK uncertified RGGOs, where the current rule interpretations do allow uncertified volumes to be used in scope reporting. While certification is the norm for unsubsidised volumes, typically associated with high-end markets, stricter rulings by the CDP may see uncertified become the exception and prices for UK uncertified to fall.
While very few Member States met the initial 21 May 2025 implementation deadline, we have seen more countries transpose the renewable transport fuel provisions into law, with Germany transposition expected very early in 2026. The use of GHG intensity targets, rather than volume targets, will see even higher premiums placed on low CI scores. Developments in other large markets, France and Italy, for example, will also bear watching.
While the ERGaR Certificate of Origin (CoO) scheme already allowed transfer of GOs internationally, membership was limited (seven registries), and with at least one register (VertiCer) looking to put an end to CoO transfers in 2026. The AIB gas scheme hub is already in operation and has seen transfers but will get a major boost with volumes associated with the French market – with the EEX register to be connected in early 2026. Increasing activity in the AIB hub could decrease fragmentation and lead to more uniform pricing across Europe.
Similar to the AIB hub, the Union database offers a way forward to standardise biomethane transactions, where sustainability status needs to be robustly tracked and assigned. While the database is operational, practically it remains an afterthought, particularly in Germany where the Nabisy register is still the dominant sustainability tracking tool. We may even have to wait until 2027 to see the UDB reflected in market activity. Keep an eye out for developments regarding third-party agreements (the UK and Switzerland in particular), GO integration and Member State implementation.
Biomethane pricing, supply growth, carbon intensity differentiation, and cross-border trading infrastructure are all moving at the same time, and each has direct implications for contracting and investment decisions.
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