As anticipated in our prior month’s forecast, Polish Guarantees of Origin (GO) prices experienced a significant decline on January 12, 2023. The most substantial drop was observed in the 2024 GOs, with a decrease of 11%, while the 2023 GOs saw a 10% reduction. Notably, despite this decrease, the 2023 Polish GOs maintained a higher price compared to the AIB EECS GOs, with a difference of approximately 1 Euro/MWh.
The imposition of a 97% windfall tax during the second half of 2022 on spot transactions, played a crucial role in limiting supply in the past. This restriction contributed to maintaining the prices of Polish GOs relatively stable. In contrast, the prices of 2023 AIB GOs experienced a decline during this period.
Presently, there is a notable trend among sellers to divest their 2023 GO holdings. This, combined with the historically high premium of Polish GOs over AIB, is exerting additional downward pressure on prices. As a result, prices are currently in a declining trend, and further decreases are anticipated in the near future.
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