The main price drivers in China’s national ETS currently point downward. The issuance and trading of new offset credits, the ‘soft’ start of scope expansion to three carbon-intensive manufacturing sectors, pre-allocation of 2024 allowances and the long lead time to the 2024 compliance deadline (31 December 2025), all make for a bearish price trend going forward. Updated banking/borrowing rules will likely increase selling pressure in the coming months, keeping prices low in the medium term. Meanwhile, the US-China trade standoff is likely to weigh on market sentiment.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
