With tight EU ETS market conditions, any delays in abatement will have a knock-on effect on prices. Higher green hydrogen prices have introduced uncertainty regarding the viability of the most widely proposed decarbonisation options for European steel producers, and we have revised up our industry sector emission forecast compared to previous updates. Our price forecast curve is lifted by 13% over the forecasting horizon 2025-2035 compared to our previous forecast, with prices on average EUR 31/t above our previous forecast from 2028 onwards.

Policy lens turned to industry competitiveness. Worries about high energy prices, energy autonomy, and industrial decline have become the main drivers of Europe’s energy policy. That does not mean ‘green’ is out, but it does mean that emission reductions a…