Stationary EU ETS emissions down 5.8% year-on-year.
On the twentieth year of reporting emissions for sectors covered by the EU Emission Trading System, emissions are at the lowest level since the outset in 2005.
Based on the available reported emission data 1 April 2025 we estimate the industry and power sector installations emitted a total of 1033.5 Mt in 2024. This is a 63.3 Mt or 5.8 % decline year-on-year.
Decarbonisation of the power sector is the main cause for the year-on-year drop in emissions. Industry sectors was also seen lower.
Data coverage is at with 90% of reported emissions for stationary installations.
The aviation sector reported a total of 56.3 Mt for 2024. We expect the total 2024 emissions to increase due to some late reporting.
Figure 1: Historic EU ETS emissions (excluded UK emission pre-2020 and maritime emissions for comparison reasons)
Based on available data we estimate power and heat sector being responsible for 453.8 Mt of CO2eq in 2024, down 53.3 Mt or 10.5% from 2023. The continued decarbonisation of this sector happened despite an 1.7% increase in European power demand (according to ENTSO-e data). Strong growth in renewables, especially solar power capacity, healthy hydro reservoir levels and good nuclear availability reduced electricity production from emission intensive power sources (lignite, coal and gas).
Overall, 2024 industry emissions are seen at 579.6 Mt, down 10.1 Mt or 1.7% year-on-year. When breaking down the data further to sectors there are variations within the sectors. Most of the industry sectors continued to contract, though less severely than in 2022.
The metals sector where the largest share of emissions comes from steel production, saw a 2.4 Mt or 1.6% decrease from 2023 and is estimated for 2024 at 151.7 Mt. While Europe’s automotive sector reduced domestic steel demand, increased exports compensated.
Oil and gas production rose by 1%, emissions decreased by 3.1 Mt (-2.2%).
Chemicals was the only industry sector which saw an increase in emissions. This sector saw a 2.1 Mt or 2% year-on-year increase with a total of 103.3 Mt.
Aviation activity continued to steadily recover in 2024 towards pre-COVID levels. Overall aviation sector has reported a total of 56.3 Mt. As reporting is not complete the total 2024 emissions are expected to increase for this sector.
In total 40 Mt emissions have been reported by the maritime sector (of this only 40% will be subject to compliance obligations). This is the first year this sector is part of the EU ETS reporting. Our upfront estimates for this sector was 84.7 Mt, so we see it is as likely that a substantial amount of maritime operators have not reported emissions within the deadline.
Note: The data are based on reported emissions made publicly available by the European Commission today. They are not complete as some installations failed to submit reports within the deadline. Hence, the final numbers might differ slightly. The emissions changes between 2023 and 2024 represent the actual change for reported data and estimates for non-reported installations.
Veyt specialises in data, analysis, and insights for all significant low-carbon markets and renewable energy.
