5. May, 2025

California-Quebec long term price forecast: missed EV targets will lead to a CCA surge

In our price forecast update, we adjust our model to run on the assumption that regulators maintain a cap on carbon beyond 2045. For the short term, we adjusted the year in which Quebec implements its new supply caps from 2025 to 2026. These adjustments push down our allowance price forecast for 2030 by USD 2.00 to USD 42/t but result in higher forecasted prices in 2035 and 2045 in all scenarios.

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